Decision-Making in Times of Uncertainty: Tools for Clarity and Confidence
- Pat (PK) Kearney
- Apr 14
- 4 min read
If you've ever stood on the edge of a river scouting a rapid or paused atop a mountain before heading down, you know this truth: a deliberate pause before action can mean the difference between success and failure. Decision-making, whether in the mountains or amid organizational and global uncertainty, isn't about speed alone. It's about having a clear, structured process.
Right now, "uncertainty" is the word I hear echoing in my work with clients and in the world. While we can't eliminate uncertainty, we can navigate it more effectively by being more intentional about how we make decisions. Through coaching leaders and facilitating sessions, I've learned that effective decision-making isn't about individual brilliance; it's about clarity, alignment, and thoughtful processes.
The NOLS Decision-Making Framework
One framework I regularly rely on comes from the National Outdoor Leadership School (NOLS). Adapted from Chrislip and Larson's leadership models, NOLS categorizes decision-making styles on a continuum with two critical factors:
Speed of decision
Level of group involvement and ownership
This approach provides a shared language for how decisions get made in the field. On this continuum, the vertical axis shows the time a decision takes, while the horizontal axis shows the level of group ownership of the outcome. Understanding these factors helps leaders clearly communicate how decisions will be made and aligns the team's expectations. Effective leaders flex between styles depending on context:
Leader Decides
Directive: Leader makes the decision and clearly communicates it. Essential in crisis or urgent situations.
Consultative: Leader gathers input from the team and then makes the final decision. Often involves floating tentative ideas to gauge team reactions.
Group Decides
Voting: Majority rules, including the leader.
Consensus: The entire group discusses until they reach an agreement everyone supports, clearly defined as something everyone can "live with, implement, and support."
Delegated Decision
The leader outlines parameters, and the group independently makes the decision. Ideal for lower-risk decisions or when group ownership is a must.
Clear communication about the decision-making approach prevents confusion, builds trust, and creates alignment. Conversely, inconsistency, saying one thing and doing another, quickly erodes psychological safety and trust.
Quick Check: Fist to Five
When building toward consensus, I highly recommend the "Fist to Five" tool. It's a simple, visual method to quickly gauge alignment and surface hidden concerns:
✊ Fist (0): Silent or disengaged—pause and check in.
☝️ 1 Finger: Fully on board, no reservations.
✌️ 2 Fingers: Generally supportive, minor concerns.
🤟 3 Fingers: Willing to support but have some reservations to discuss.
🖖 4 Fingers: Serious concerns; these must be addressed to gain support.
🖐️ 5 Fingers: Not supportive; the decision must stop for concerns to be fully addressed.
Psychological safety is essential: anyone raising a 4 or 5 should feel safe expressing their concerns without fear.
Bonus tip: If everyone shows a 1 or 2, pause to ask, "What might we be missing?" Assign a devil's advocate or conduct a quick "red team" exercise to ensure all perspectives are considered.
The Importance of Self-Awareness
An often-overlooked component of effective decision-making is self-awareness. Understanding your default reactions under stress, whether through your Hogan derailers or your DiSC profile, can significantly enhance your decision-making capability. When you recognize how you typically respond in high-pressure situations, you can manage your blind spots and leverage your strengths more intentionally. This self-awareness helps not only you but also your team, promoting transparency, trust, and better outcomes.
Avoiding Common Decision-Making Traps
I recently revisited the classic HBR article, "Before You Make That Big Decision…" by Kahneman, Lovallo, and Sibony, which outlines key biases organizations commonly face in their decision-making. Recognizing and addressing these biases can significantly improve your decision-making process:
Confirmation Bias: Seeking evidence to confirm existing beliefs.
Tip: Actively consider credible alternatives. Run an "assumption-flip" or pre-mortem exercise to challenge biases.
Anchoring: Getting stuck on the initial idea or number presented.
Tip: Question why and how the initial anchor was set, and test if it's still valid.
Groupthink: Prioritizing harmony over critical analysis.
Tip: Use silent brainstorming or tools like Liberating Structures' "1-2-4-All" to surface diverse perspectives before discussion.
Overconfidence: Overestimating the likelihood of success.
Tip: Define success clearly and honestly evaluate realistic outcomes, including worst-case scenarios.
How to Apply This: A Quick Decision-Making Warm-Up
Before making critical decisions, like strategic direction, hiring, or launching programs, do this:
Name the Decision: Clear, shared language helps alignment.
Decide Who and How: Explicitly clarify your decision-making style and who is making the decision.
Scan for Biases: Use the checklist from the HBR traps.
Invite Alternatives: Assign a devil's advocate to challenge assumptions.
Pressure-Test Assumptions: Clarify what must be true for the decision to succeed or fail.
Define Success Criteria: Clearly outline how you'll evaluate the decision's success.
Final Thoughts
Effective decision-making isn't about rushing forward, it's about creating clarity and alignment and following a thoughtful process. When you pause to determine your approach, acknowledge potential biases, and explicitly define success criteria, you fundamentally transform your outcomes and equip your team to navigate uncertainty with confidence.
